Bitcoin Bear Market: Finding the Mathematical Floor (RANSAC Model)

"How low can Bitcoin go?"

This is the single most asked question in crypto right now. We are seeing fear in the streets, uncertainty about the four-year cycle, and endless debates about whether the bull market is over or just resting.

But opinions are cheap. Emotions like fear and greed cloud our judgment. As an investor, you don't need another opinion; you need data.

In my latest video, I put emotions aside and built a mathematical model to find the true "floor" price of Bitcoin. I used an algorithm called RANSAC to strip away the market noise and reveal the raw trend.

Here is what the math says about the Bitcoin bottom.

The Problem with Standard Technical Analysis

Most traders draw lines on a chart connecting the lowest wicks of previous crashes. The problem? Those wicks are outliers. They represent moments of extreme panic and capitulation (like the FTX crash or the COVID dump).

If you build your strategy waiting for a "Black Swan" panic wick, you might miss the opportunity entirely. We need a way to find the true trend—the signal hidden inside the noise.

The Solution: The RANSAC Algorithm

To solve this, I wrote a Python script using the RANSAC (Random Sample Consensus) algorithm.

RANSAC is commonly used in computer vision and engineering to interpret data that contains a lot of errors or "noise." It works by:

1. Looking at the entire dataset (Bitcoin’s price history).

2. Identifying the "inliers" (normal price action).

3. Ignoring the "outliers" (extreme panic wicks or blow-off tops).

4. Fitting a curve that best describes the true trajectory of the asset.

By applying this to Bitcoin, we can mathematically define a "Floor Line" where the price spends the vast majority of its time above.

The Two Models: Where is the Bottom?

I ran two variations of this model to give us a clear accumulation zone.

1. The "Strict" Floor (99% Confidence)

• Definition: The algorithm draws a line where 99% of Bitcoin's price history sits ABOVE this level.

• The Price Target: Currently, this line sits around $54,900.

• The Implication: If Bitcoin drops to ~$55k, it is a statistical anomaly. Historically, buying at this line has generated generational wealth. It is the "accumulation of a lifetime" zone.

2. The "Standard" Floor (95% Confidence)

• Definition: A slightly looser model where 95% of price history sits ABOVE this level.

• The Price Target: This line is currently near $60,000 - $63,000.

The Reality: We recently tested this level (bouncing off ~$60k). This suggests that for 95% of scenarios, the bottom might already be in.

Supporting Evidence: On-Chain Data

The math doesn't stand alone. I also looked at on-chain metrics to confirm this thesis:

• Supply in Profit/Loss: The lines representing Bitcoin supply in profit vs. loss are converging. Historically, when these two lines meet, it marks a cyclical bottom (seen in 2015, 2019, and 2022). We are very close to this cross.

  
  

  

  
  

• Retail is Waking Up: Wallets holding 0.1 to 1 BTC are increasing. While whales (1k+ BTC) are consolidating, "stackers" are buying the dip. This distribution often happens near market floors.

  
  

  

The Strategy: Remove the Emotion

Whether you believe in the four-year cycle or not, the data suggests we are in a prime value zone.

If the RANSAC model holds true (as it has for 14 years), any Bitcoin price between $55,000 and $65,000 is a mathematically optimal entry.

• If we hit $55k: It is a rare, 1% probability event. Aggressive accumulation makes sense here.

• If we hold $60k: The 95% model holds, and the trend continues upward.

Stop guessing. Start calculating.

Watch the full video breakdown below to see the interactive charts and the Python code in action:

💡 Final Note

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