Bitcoin & Crypto Must Survive September for an Explosive Q4

My readers already know my thesis: September is likely to be a tough month for altcoins, including Ethereum. I expect capital to rotate from altcoins into Bitcoin, as the market seeks clarity and leadership. For a true “risk-on” environment to emerge in Q4, Bitcoin must move substantially higher.

My cycle top prediction of $180K+ still stands. However, I believe altcoins will begin their exponential phase only once Bitcoin breaks through the $130K–$140K range. Ethereum and major Layer 1s will likely lead, followed by mid- and low-cap altcoins. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s explore some key Bitcoin metrics to assess whether Bitcoin is in a position to move higher—or whether the cycle top is already in, as some are starting to claim.

A Rare Red August?

For the first time since its inception, Bitcoin is on track to close a post-halving August in the red. Historically, August has been a green month in post-halving years, with September typically delivering a pullback. With only two days left, Bitcoin remains in the red—prompting speculation that perhaps this time, September will defy history and close green.

But for me, this debate is irrelevant. The real question is:

1. Is Bitcoin’s current price attractive for accumulation?

2. Are we still in a bull market?

That’s what matters.

No Cycle Top Signals—Yet

On our platform, we monitor hundreds of on-chain and off-chain indicators daily. Not a single one has flashed that the cycle top is in. That’s the good news. But we can’t ignore the fact that September is historically Bitcoin’s weakest month.

All eyes are now on the FOMC meeting on September 17, which could be the most pivotal event of the month for risk assets. Markets are currently pricing in an 85% probability of a rate cut. If the Fed surprises and holds rates steady, expect heightened volatility across all asset classes.

Protect Capital First, Chase Gains Later

My first goal, as always, is to protect capital. That’s why if you follow our blogs, premium chat, or social media, you’ll notice I haven’t started accumulating altcoins yet.

I’d rather miss some early gains than watch my portfolio bleed 7–10% per day while waiting for an “altcoin season” that hasn’t started.

Inside our Telegram Premium, I share my exact allocations and moves, including my latest decision: accumulating more Bitcoin if we get a dip. My next buy zone is near the Bull Market Support Band, with the 21-week EMA currently at $107.5K. If Bitcoin reaches those levels, I plan to accumulate heavily.

Is It Still Safe to Accumulate?

As long as Bitcoin remains in low-risk territory, as determined by our machine-learned Daily Risk Score that combines on-chain and off-chain signals, I’m comfortable accumulating.

However, if we break below the bull market support band, I will re-evaluate my stance.

From the hundreds of charts I monitor daily, I want to highlight just two that illustrate why I believe the market is still in an accumulation phase, not a euphoric top.

1. Google Trends: Retail Still Missing

   Google search interest for Bitcoin is near yearly lows. Retail attention is minimal, which is the opposite of what we’d expect at a market top. Historically, Bitcoin peaks in times of frenzy and FOMO, not when everyone is ignoring it.

   
   

   

2. Short-Term Bubble Risk: Market Still Neutral

   This metric shows Bitcoin’s deviation from its 20-week SMA (currently ~$107K). Right now, Bitcoin is trading very close to its 20W SMA, indicating that market conditions are neutral, not overextended.

   
   

   

Bonus: Bollinger Band

We’re now approaching the lower Bollinger Band, which, combined with low risk scores, has historically marked attractive accumulation zones. Based on the data and supported by intuition, I believe the next big move will be to the upside.

Final Thoughts

September is shaping up to be a critical month for Bitcoin and crypto markets. I hope we avoid a brutal correction and that Bitcoin holds above the Bull Market Support Band.

If it does, I believe we’ll be in a strong position for an explosive Q4 rally.

Stay focused. Protect your capital. And prepare to act when the time is right.

If you’re subscribed to Lab4Crypto, you’re already ahead with real-time access to the metrics that matter most.

Because in this market, data > emotions.