Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Moment: Will Q4 2025 Define This Cycle?

Many analysts argue that Bitcoin tends to peak in Q4 of cycle years (October–November). History supports this view, but the real question is: Is Bitcoin positioned to start moving higher now and break multiple all-time highs in Q4 2025?

In this article, I’ll cover:

• When Bitcoin and altcoins could reach their cycle tops

• Whether Bitcoin is ready to push higher in Q4 2025

• The price level that would make me reconsider my stance

• The move I’ll personally make before September ends

September: The Weakest Month

As the table below shows, September has historically been one of Bitcoin’s weakest months, with a 66% probability of closing red.

This September, Bitcoin is down only 0.16%, but more importantly, it sits right at crucial resistance levels:

• Fair value measured by the Bitcoin Power Law

• The Bull Market Support Band (BMSB)

When Bitcoin hovers around these levels, it’s vital to check two things:

1. Market sentiment – Are traders euphoric or fearful?

2. Risk levels – Is the upside still attractive?

And remember: there is no altcoin season without a strong Bitcoin.

Recent Dip and Altcoin Trap

With five days left in September, Bitcoin dipped about 3.8%, while altcoins dropped two to three times more.

Why? Many influencers declared “altcoin season” and retail traders piled into leveraged longs. We briefly saw a 10-day altcoin rally — followed by a heavy rejection.

This is exactly why I stress that timing is everything in altcoins. Enter too early, and you get punished. Altcoins are not forgiving.

My Positioning

Throughout August and September, I said the same thing on YouTube and here:

👉 “Altcoin season is not here. Focus on Bitcoin. Accumulate when opportunities arise.”

That’s why I bought Bitcoin at $108K when it revisited the BMSB (20W SMA / 21W EMA).

Today, Bitcoin trades at $109.6K, just above the 21W EMA ($109.2K). This is the level bulls must defend. If Bitcoin closes September above it, the outlook for Q4 becomes extremely bullish.

• My plan: wait for the weekly close and add more BTC if we hold above the BMSB.

• For those underexposed, this is still a reasonable level to consider accumulation, with other metrics lining up bullishly.

Sentiment Still Cold

Google Trends: Search interest for “Bitcoin” is at just 18%, the lowest of 2025. True cycle tops come with hype, reckless borrowing, and disbelief in a top — we’re nowhere near that.

Fear & Greed Index: firmly in fear territory. In bull markets, the strategy of being greedy when others are fearful tends to work well.

Quantitative Data

1. Bitcoin Power Law Fair Value

   • Current fair value: $109.8K

   • Price: just below fair value → suggests undervaluation

   • In 2025, every time price touched this line, it acted as resistance before breaking higher.

     

     
     

2. Bitcoin Risk Model

   • Current risk: 30.1%

   • Built daily from on-chain + off-chain data using ML

   • In bull runs, this level signals significant upside potential.

     

3. Wallet Rotation

   • 10K–100K BTC wallets: decreasing

   • 100–1K BTC wallets: increasing, absorbing whale selling

   • Key question: how long can mid-sized holders keep absorbing pressure?

     

     

Next Steps & Q4 2025 Outlook

• Bitcoin → I’ll wait for the weekly close above the BMSB before accumulating further (already added at $108K).

• Ethereum → I’ll start accumulating once it revisits its BMSB, currently around $3.6K.

⚠️ Remember: altcoin season only comes when Bitcoin is strong and trading at much higher levels. Don’t FOMO into alts — mistiming can be punishing.

⏳ My current view:

• Bitcoin top → Q4 2025 - Q1 2026

• Altcoin top → Q1 2026 (possibly stretching into Q2 depending on Fed monetary policy — a topic for a future blog).

⚠️ I will reconsider my plan if Bitcoin loses $100K. That’s my line in the sand. 💡 Final Note

Don’t forget to subscribe to Lab4Crypto to get access to all of this data in real time — across all platforms (desktop, tablet, and mobile). Stay ahead of the market with the same insights I use to make decisions.