If you’ve been following me over the past few years, you probably noticed I didn’t hold any Ethereum during the last three. Why? Because the data didn’t justify it.
But that changed earlier this year.
When Ethereum touched the -1 standard deviation on our unique bottom range indicator, I began accumulating ETH between $1.5K and $1.8K, and I publicly posted about it on Twitter at the time (see post). I’m not here to farm engagement. My only goal is to bring value to our subscribers. You won’t find hype posts on our platform claiming “altcoin season is coming” or “Ethereum bull run is starting” unless the data truly supports it.
That single post marked the cycle low for Ethereum. What the Data Says Now Since the April low, Ethereum has staged a strong bounce primarily led by institutional wallets, not retail. This is clearly visible in both on-chain data and Google Trends, which show a minimal increase in retail interest so far.
We’re now seeing a shift:
BitMine, a newly emerging ETH treasury company, has raised over $250M and accumulated 566,000 ETH. Its strategy closely mirrors Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin approach—betting on long-term price appreciation and staking yield.
Ethereum spot ETFs are also gaining traction, with billions of dollars in ETH inflows over the last month.
→ Track ETH ETF inflows on Farside (soon also in our platform alongside Bitcoin ETF flows)
This institutional demand has helped Ethereum stay comfortably above its bull market support band ($2.4K–$2.7K) despite the typically slow summer months.
The FOMO Threshold
Ethereum is currently flirting with its FOMO level at $3,812, a price that historically triggers strong retail interest and rapid accumulation.
If ETH breaks and holds above this level, I expect it to retest its All-Time High of $4,721 in the coming months. However, a failure to break this zone, especially during August and September, which are traditionally weak months for crypt, could result in a pullback.
What I’m Doing With My ETH
I always navigate the market with our proprietary risk metrics. Here’s what they’re telling me:
Ethereum risk is currently at 68% (at $3,800)
Bitcoin risk is at 40%
→ So relative to BTC, Ethereum looks much more “heated”
Based on this, I’ve taken 10% profits. That doesn’t mean Ethereum is done—it still has room to grow. But I prefer to dynamically scale out as the price rises, rather than trying to time exact tops.
Even our Short-Term Bubble Risk Indicator shows Ethereum is getting hot—not euphoric.
Remember: market tops don’t happen when retail is absent; they occur during periods of frenzy and euphoria. We’re not there yet.
Final Thoughts
To summarise:
✅ Ethereum has more room to grow, especially if it breaks the $3,812 FOMO level
⚠️ But risk is rising, and retail has yet to fully enter
💡 I’ve started locking in partial profits while remaining exposed to potential upside
Q4 could offer better conditions for Ethereum and altcoins, particularly if macro conditions align and retail interest picks up. For now, it’s a waiting game, but the data gives us an edge.
If you’re subscribed to Lab4Crypto, you already have access to the metrics and tools that help you navigate what’s next, with data, not emotions.
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