Is the Bull Run Over After Bitcoin Closed Two Weeks Below the 50-Week Moving Average?

Bitcoin has now closed two consecutive weeks below the 50-week moving average, a level that historically signalled the end of previous bull runs. For many investors, this immediately raises the question of whether the market has officially entered a deeper corrective phase. In most of my blogs, I rely heavily on charts, models, and data-driven visuals to guide the analysis. But for this article, I want to take a different approach. I will include only a small number of charts, not because the data is less important, but because I want to walk you through my full thought process in a clear, narrative way. My goal is to help you understand why the market is behaving the way it is, how the recent events fit into a broader structural context, and what I believe comes next for Bitcoin.

However, this cycle is anything but ordinary, and reducing the entire market to a single moving average misses the deeper structural forces driving the current volatility. While the historical pattern deserves respect, there is a compelling argument that this time may diverge meaningfully from the past. Even though we printed two weekly closes below the 50-week MA, I am leaning far more toward the bullish interpretation of what comes next. The recent decline did not occur because the market naturally exhausted its upside potential. It was the result of a complex mix of events unfolding almost simultaneously. Throughout 2025, very old Bitcoin held by whales since as early as 2010 was quietly distributed into the market. Demand was high enough that this selling was barely visible in price action, especially with ETF inflows absorbing much of the supply. At one point, Bitcoin was structurally positioned to move toward the $150K+ region.

Everything changed after one large spot sale triggered a cascade of liquidations. The USDe stablecoin depeg accelerated the chaos, forcing exchanges to automatically deleverage positions and wiping out collateral for thousands of traders. Many investors woke up to evaporated gains, liquidated altcoins, and a strong psychological flashback to the 2021–2022 cycle. This sudden shock triggered a powerful wave of derisking, and panic began to spread across the entire market. As volatility spiked beyond 20%, even ETFs began posting huge outflows, some exceeding a billion dollars in a single day, although more than 95% of IBIT’s AUM remained intact. Because the crypto market is still small compared to traditional financial markets, panic compounds rapidly. Within days, Bitcoin dropped more than 33%.

The Bitcoin Risk Metric today sits at 51.4% at $87K, indicating that the market is currently in a balanced state where short-term holders are capitulating while long-term holders continue to accumulate. These two groups operate with completely different mindsets, and that divergence is driving the volatility we are seeing now. Long-term holders are focused on the bigger picture: regulatory clarity for Bitcoin is already stronger than last year and continues to improve, major banks such as JP Morgan and Citi are preparing to allow their clients to trade and hold Bitcoin, and the Clarity Act is expected to pass in the coming months. At the same time, quantitative tightening ends on December 1, 2025, and with Jerome Powell expected to be replaced next year, markets anticipate lower rates and increased liquidity. Together, these developments create a much more supportive backdrop for Bitcoin than what previous cycles experienced.

Many investors who weren’t active during 2020–2021 underestimate how aggressively assets move when liquidity expands. When tightening ends and fresh liquidity enters the system, asset prices do not simply rise; they accelerate. Entire portfolios can change dramatically in weeks. The big question now is whether 2026 will be such a liquidity-driven year. Sentiment today sits at Extreme Fear, which historically has been a major opportunity zone. All it takes is a single positive macro catalyst to shift the entire structure of the market.

Despite the fear, I remain convinced that Bitcoin will set a new all-time high in 2026. But conviction does not mean carelessness, and I continue to manage the market in front of me. Forty per cent of my Bitcoin remains untouched as a long-term position, exactly as I described in my previous blog. I did derisk a portion of my holdings at $100K when the 50-week moving average was lost, and now my focus is on whether Bitcoin can hold the 100-week moving average as support. If it does, any positive macro or regulatory development could push Bitcoin back toward a retest of the $100K level.

That retest will be the decisive moment. Many investors who missed the chance to derisk earlier will seize that opportunity, creating significant sell pressure. If demand is weak at that point, the market will almost certainly confirm a deeper bearish trend. But if demand is strong and long-term holders continue absorbing supply, the foundation for a 2026 rally becomes extremely strong. The aftershocks of the October 10th liquidation event will gradually fade as sellers deplete their inventory, and the market will eventually stabilise.

December will therefore be a crucial month for Bitcoin and crypto. The macro environment, ETF flows, regulatory updates, and key moving averages will determine whether we are heading into a long corrective phase or preparing for one of the most powerful liquidity cycles in Bitcoin’s history.

To stay ahead of what comes next, make sure you monitor these developments closely. On the Lab4crypto platform and app, you can access more than 1,000 dynamic charts updated daily to navigate the volatility with clarity and confidence.