Jackson Hole, Rate Cuts, Bitcoin and Why Altcoin Season Isn’t Here Yet

Markets are at a crossroads, and Powell’s speech this week could tip the balance.

In this week’s blog, I break down:

• Why September could be brutal for altcoins

• What my accumulation strategy looks like if Bitcoin drops further

• What really signals the start of an altcoin season (hint: not this past week)

• And why I’m sticking to my $180K+ Bitcoin cycle top prediction made 4 years ago

Jackson Hole. Rate cuts

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver a highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium (August 21-23), an event that has historically shaped global monetary policy since its inception in 1981.

Markets are currently pricing in an 82.9% probability of a 25bps rate cut in September. And while markets hate surprises, a hawkish tone could lead to a pullback. Ideally, Powell signals a willingness to ease; otherwise, equities and crypto could react negatively in the short term.

Altcoin Season? Not Yet.

Ethereum’s recent rally triggered a short-lived surge in altcoins, and unsurprisingly, many influencers rushed to call it the beginning of altcoin season.

A week later, those gains were completely wiped out.

Take a moment to reflect on who told you that altcoin season had begun. Often, these are people farming engagement rather than protecting your capital.

My take remains unchanged:

🔁 Bitcoin will likely lead first, draining liquidity from altcoins before we see a proper altcoin run, most likely later this year or early 2026.

I’ve held this view for the past 4 years, and nothing in the data has made me change it.

September could be tough for altcoins. Historically, in post-halving years, Bitcoin tends to close September in the red. However, if August also ends in the red (which would be a first for a post-halving year), then Bitcoin may not suffer as much in September. That said, altcoins are still unlikely to perform well without a major shift in sentiment.

Without a significant catalyst (e.g. peace in Ukraine, pro-crypto legislation in the U.S., or major corporate crypto disclosures), it’s hard to see altcoins running on their own.

My Bitcoin Strategy (Still in Play)

As Bitcoin drops, I find the opportunity to accumulate more attractive.

Here’s what I’ve done and what I’m watching:

• ✅ Accumulated BTC at $113K

• 🟠 Next buy level: Lower Bollinger Band (~$111.3K)

• 🔵 Ultimate accumulation zone: Bull Market Support Band (~$107K)

I will rotate profits into altcoins only when the risk/reward shifts in their favour and not before. I’ll keep you posted on Telegram as always.

Why I’m Still Bullish Long-Term

Despite short-term uncertainty, I remain bullish heading into Q4 2025 – Q1 2026. Why?

Here are just a few reasons — all available on Lab4Crypto’s platform:

• 🧮 Our flagship Bitcoin risk metric is at 32.7%, far from overheated.

  
  

  

• 🐳 Wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC are growing, suggesting accumulation by serious players. Since September 2024, they have kept growing exponentially.

  
  

  

• ⚖️ Bitcoin’s current price is near its fair value (around $106K, marked by the red line), showing no signs of overextension. I expect it to reach the +2 standard deviation level (green line) later in this cycle.

  
  

  

• 🚨 Tops typically happen in frenzies, not uncertainty. We’re not there yet.

Final Thoughts

Until Powell speaks on Friday (Aug 22), the market may remain rangebound. But my strategy is already set, and I’m not changing it.

📌 Still waiting for true altcoin season.

📌 Still accumulating BTC on dips.

📌 Still targeting a Bitcoin cycle top above $180K, just as I predicted 4 years ago.

If you’re subscribed to Lab4Crypto, you’re already ahead with real-time access to the metrics that matter most.

Because in this market, data > emotions.